SCEC SCIENCE SEMINAR

DATE: Monday, September 20th, 1999
PLACE: Davidson Conference Center, University of Southern California

TOPIC: "Earth Sciences-Engineering Interface in the HAZUS Loss Estimation
Method And Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Faults"

Organizers: John H. Shaw (Harvard Univ.) & Tom Rockwell (San Diego State University)
Facilitators: Jill Andrews and Mark Benthien, SCEC Outreach (USC)

AGENDA
The first two hours of the seminar will provide information on the
FEMA-NIBS Earthquake Loss Estimation Method (HAZUS) and the way its earth
sciences module interfaces with the engineering module's building demand
and capacity curves, building fragility curves, uncertainty quantification
related to ground motion and building response, and other topics. The
remainder of the day will be dedicated to providing a summary of the
current state-of-knowledge of important earthquake sources in the Los
Angeles metropolitan region, and define research priorities for SCEC
efforts to assess and mitigate these natural hazards.

Part I: The FEMA-NIBS Earthquake Loss Estimation Method (HAZUS): The
Relationship Between the Earth Science and Engineering Modules

8:00 AM
Mr. Robert Reitherman
Executive Director, California Universities for Research in Earthquake
Engineering (CUREe)

Dr. Charles Kircher
Kircher Associates, Palo Alto, CA

Bob Reitherman, one of the nine members of the NIBS (National Institute of
Building Sciences) panel that has reviewed and overseen the development of
HAZUS since its inception, will explain the overall purposes for which
HAZUS is intended, focusing on the potential for earth scientists to use
HAZUS as a ready-made engine for testing the consequences of various
seismological variables or theories in terms of the.

In his presentation, Dr. Kircher, the key "architect" of the overall HAZUS
method, will focus on the details of the way the earth sciences module in
HAZUS (Potential Earth Science Hazards, or PESH) interfaces with the
engineering module's building demand and capacity curves, building
fragility curves, uncertainty quantifications related to ground motion and
building response, and other topics. The way in which the PESH module
computes the ground motions at various locales and "hands off" that
calculation to the engineering module for further analysis steps to
estimate building damage will be discussed.

General Information on HAZUS: The HAZUS earthquake loss estimation method
has been developed over the past six years by a large team of researchers
and consultants assembled by the National Institute of Building Sciences
(NIBS) with funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
The HAZUS software, which is widely available and has been used to conduct
large-scale loss studies for a number of regions of the country and
possible earthquakes, provides the means for efficiently carrying out loss
estimation studies on the scale of large urban regions, because it
incorporates into its databases and analysis procedures that have been
designed to take advantage of GIS-formatted data of a variety of types.
These sets of data relate to topics such as buildings, population
distribution in various census tracts at different times of day, economic
variables by numerous sectors, utility systems, highway systems and
bridges, locations of site-specific factors by specific address or
longitude and latitude such as companies using hazardous materials or key
facilities such as hospitals. One of the most important "layers" of data
and corresponding analysis in this program is the earth sciences component,
called Potential Earth Science Hazards (PESH) in HAZUS. Physical damage is
translated in to resulting losses, such as direct property loss or indirect
economic loss or casualties. A requirement adhered to throughout the
development of HAZUS has been a prohibition on the use of proprietary or
"black box" components within the method, and complete documentation of the
underlying theory and analytical steps in a Technical Manual,thus making
its inner workings susceptible to scrutiny and use by researchers. One
purpose of this seminar will be to acquaint earth scientists and others
with the opportunity this openness provides for using HAZUS in a variety of
studies.

10:00 AM BREAK

Part II: Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Faults

10:10 AM Introduction (J. H. Shaw - Harvard & T. Rockwell - SDSU)
10:20 Lessons from Earthquakes in the Greater Los Angeles Area (E.
Hauksson - Caltech)
10:40 Paleoseismology and Kinematics of Strike-Slip and Oblique-Reverse
Faults of the Northern Los Angeles Metropolitan Region (J. Dolan - USC)
11:00 Strike-Slip Faults in Central Los Angeles and Northern Orange
Counties (T. Rockwell - SDSU)
11:20 Thrust & Reverse Faults beneath Metropolitan Los Angeles (J. H.
Shaw - Harvard)
11:40 Discussion / posters

Noon LUNCH

1: 00 PM Shortening and Thickening of Metropolitan Los Angeles Measured and
Inferred by using Geodesy (D. Argus - JPL)
1:15 LA Escape Tectonics (C. Walls - Earth Consultants International)
1:30 Discussion
1:45 The LA basin as a Foredeep of an Advancing Thrust Wedge Illuminated
by Seismicity (L. Seeber - Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory)
2:00 Neotectonics of the Hollywood Fault (T. Rockwell - SDSU; S.
Lindvall -William Lettis & Associates)
2:15 Discussion
2:30 Large-Slip Earthquakes and Slip Distribution along the Sierra Madre
Fault, Southern California (C. Rubin - Central Washington University)
2:45 Uplift Rates along the Sierra Madre Fault Zone (S. Lindvall -
William Lettis & Associates)
3:00 Other Big Ones', How Big? How Often?: Paleoseismologic Results
from the Eastern Sierra Madre, Cucamonga, Oak Ridge, and San Cayetano
Faults (J. Dolan - USC)

3:15 Discussion/BREAK

4:00 Active Parasitic Folds on the Elysian Park Anticline: Implications
for Seismic Hazard of the Elysian Park Fault System (M. Oskin & K. Sieh -
Caltech)
4:15 Blind Thrust Hazards in Orange County: Geometry and Kinematics of
the San Joaquin Hills and Coyote Anticlines (K. Mueller - University of
Colorado)
4:30 The Oceanside Thrust System (J.H. Shaw - Harvard)
4:45 Discussion
5:00 SCEC Group C Planning Session (T. Rockwell - SCEC group C leader)