StatSei 6
Meeting Information

Committee and Sponsors


Field Trip



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Related Links
Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)

Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)

Granlibakken Resort and Conference Center

Previous Meetings
StatSei 5

StatSei 4

StatSei 3
StatSei 6 Workshop Program

Sunday, April 12, 2009

16:00 Arrival / Registration (Lobby)
18:00 Dinner Reception (Granhall)

Monday, April 13, 2009

7:30 Breakfast (Granhall)
8:30 Welcome and Introduction (Mountain Room)
8:45 Special Lecture: "The Early Days of Statistical Seismology" David Vere-Jones
Session 1 - Earthquake Physics and Fault Structures Moderators: Michael Lewis, Annemarie Christopherson
9:30 A Fluid-Driven Earthquake Cycle: Percolation, 1/f Noise, Tremor, and Aftershocks Stephen Miller
9:45 Physical and Statistical Characterization Deep Tremor Greg Beroza
10:00 Focal Mechanism Statistics for Southern California Fault Zones Iain Bailey
10:15 Break
10:45 A Focal Mechanism-dependent Anisotropic Spatial Kernel for Space-time ETAS Models Ka Wong
11:00 Near-Fault Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks Peter Powers
11:15 Modeling Seismic Moment Release: A Step Toward Resolving the Seismic Moment Deficit Paradox Ilya Zaliapin
11:30 When Logs are not Enough: Equal-Density Scatterplots for Extrapolatory Analysis of Seismicity (pdf) Duncan Agnew
11:45 Negative Binomial Distribution of Earthquake Numbers Yan Kagan
12:00 Lunch (Granhall)
13:30 Collective Behavior of Earthquakes and Faults Yehuda Ben-Zion
13:45 Plastic Deformation and Crackling Noise: Learning from Dislocations about Earthquakes Karin Dahmen
14:00 Discussion
14:45 Break
Session 2 - Stress Renewal & Earthquake Recurrence Intervals Moderator: Mike Blanpied
15:15 The 2009 L'Aquila Sequence: A Short Overview Jochen Woessner
15:30 Reconstructing Fault Slip Using High Resolution Topography: Denali 2002 and Fort Tejon California 1857 Ramon Arrowsmith
15:45 Magnitude-Frequency Distribution for the Southern San Andreas Fault Estimated from Paleoseismic Data Glenn Biasi
16:00 Uncharacteristic Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain: An Update Lisa Ludwig
16:15 Discussion
17:00 Adjourn
18:00 Dinner (Granhall)
19:30 Session 3 - Poster Viewing (Lake Room)

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

7:30 Breakfast (Granhall)
Session 4 - Repeating Earthquakes (Mountain Room) Moderators: Katrin Plenkers, Ramon Zuniga
8:30 A Recurrence of Whole Segment Events from Individual Events and Cumulated Offset Data Delphine Fitzenz
8:45 Recurrence and Interoccurence Statistics Don Turcotte
9:00 Testing the Characteristic Earthquake Hypothesis Morgan Page
9:15 Break
9:45 Small Repeating Earthquake are Time and Slip-Predictable When Magnitudes are Improved Justin Rubinstein
10:00 Quantifying the Interaction Between Small Repeating Earthquake Sequences Kate Chen
10:15 Predictability Experiments with Repeating Microearthquakes Jeremy Zechar
10:30 Discussion
Session 5 - Earthquake Triggering and Clustering Moderators: Jiancang Zhuang, Jeanne Hardebeck
11:15 How Much is Recent Seismicity Affected by DCFF of a Previous Large Earthquakes? Ishibe Takeo
11:30 The Origin of the Earthquake Inter-Event Time Distribution Sarah Touati
11:45 On- and Off-Fault Aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island Subduction Earthquake Toggled by a Slow Slip Preceding the 2007 Great Outer-Rise Normal Faulting Earthquake Shinji Toda
12:00 Lunch (Granhall)
13:30 A Spatial Slip Distribution of the Several Large Earthquakes in Japan Derived from its Aftershock Activity and Rate-and-State Friction Law Takaki Iwata
13:45 Analysis of Early Aftershocks Observed on High-Sensitivity Continuous Waveforms in Japan Bogdan Enescu
14:00 Testing the Hypothesis That All Early Aftershocks are Triggered by Dynamic Stress Ross Stein
14:15 Response to Testing the Hypothesis That All Early Aftershocks are Triggered by Dynamic Stress Jeanne Hardebeck
14:30 Discussion
15:15 Break
15:30 Session 6 - Panel Discussion - Forecasting and Prediction: Which Way to Go? Andrew Michael, Shinji Toda, Don Turcotte, Max Wyss Moderator: Tom Jordan
16:30 Planning for StatSei 7
17:00 Adjourn
18:00 Dinner (Granhall)
19:30 Session 7 - Poster Viewing (Lake Room)

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

7:30 Breakfast (Granhall)
Session 8 - Forecasting and Hazard (Mountain Room) Moderators: Alvaro Gonzalez, James Holliday
8:30 UCERF2 and Plans for UCERF3 by WGCEP Ned Field
8:45 Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities Based on Long-Term Probability Models (pdf) Andrew Michael
9:00 New Developments in Long-Range Forecasting Using EEPAS Model David Rhoades
9:15 Global Earthquake Forecasts David Jackson
9:30 Space-Time ETAS Model for Wide Regional and Global Seismicity Yosihiko Ogata
9:45 Break
10:15 Initial report on completeness magnitude for Japan: A GR-based approach to the JMA catalog data Kazu Nanjo
10:30 Earthquake Simulators in Action (with movies - 90 MB) Steve Ward
10:45 Oceanic Transform Fault Seismicity-Earthquakes of a Different Kind (pdf) Margaret Boettcher
11:00 Discussion
Session 9 - Predictability and Testing Moderators: Kazu Nanjo, Jochen Woessner
11:45 Modeling of Extreme Seismic Events Alik Ismail-Zadeh
12:00 Lunch (Granhall)
13:30 Statistical Characteristics of the Foreshocks and Aftershocks of the 2008 MW=5.0 Earthquake in West Reno, Nevada John Anderson
13:45 Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: The Error Diagrams George Molchan
14:00 Residual Analysis Techniques for Point Process Models for Earthquake Occurrences Frederic Schoenberg
14:15 CSEP Earthquake Forecast Testing Center for Japan: Primary Scope and Recent Progress Hiroshi Tsuruoka
14:30 Prediction of M5 Earthquakes in the Wenchuan Aftershock Sequence Christine Smythe
14:45 Break
15:15 Fault-Based Search for Precursory Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Dave Bowman
15:30 Testing Precursory Quiesence Within CSEP Max Wyss
15:45 Early Aftershock Statistics: New Possibilities in Earthquake Forecasting Peter Shebalin
16:00 Discussion
16:45 Closing Remarks
17:00 Adjourn
18:00 Dinner (Granhall)
19:30 Special Lecture: Pluvial Lakes, Climate Change, Isostatic Rebound, and Active Faulting in the Northern Walker Lane: A Field Trip (Mountain Room) Steve Wesnousky

Thursday, April 16, 2009

7:00 Breakfast (Granhall)
8:00 Depart for field trip
18:00 Arrive at Granlibakken

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