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Sunday, April 12, 2009
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| 16:00 |
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Arrival / Registration (Lobby) |
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| 18:00 |
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Dinner Reception (Granhall) |
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Monday, April 13, 2009
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| 7:30 |
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Breakfast (Granhall) |
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| 8:30 |
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Welcome and Introduction (Mountain Room) |
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| 8:45 |
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Special Lecture: "The Early Days of Statistical Seismology"
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David Vere-Jones |
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Session 1 - Earthquake Physics and Fault Structures |
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Moderators: Michael Lewis, Annemarie Christopherson |
| 9:30 |
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A Fluid-Driven Earthquake Cycle: Percolation, 1/f Noise, Tremor, and Aftershocks |
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Stephen Miller |
| 9:45 |
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Physical and Statistical Characterization Deep Tremor
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Greg Beroza |
| 10:00 |
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Focal Mechanism Statistics for Southern California Fault Zones
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Iain Bailey |
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| 10:15 |
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Break |
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| 10:45 |
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A Focal Mechanism-dependent Anisotropic Spatial Kernel for Space-time ETAS Models
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Ka Wong |
| 11:00 |
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Near-Fault Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks
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Peter Powers |
| 11:15 |
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Modeling Seismic Moment Release: A Step Toward Resolving the Seismic Moment Deficit Paradox
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Ilya Zaliapin |
| 11:30 |
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When Logs are not Enough: Equal-Density Scatterplots for Extrapolatory Analysis of Seismicity (pdf)
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Duncan Agnew |
| 11:45 |
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Negative Binomial Distribution of Earthquake Numbers
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Yan Kagan |
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| 12:00 |
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Lunch (Granhall) |
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| 13:30 |
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Collective Behavior of Earthquakes and Faults
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Yehuda Ben-Zion |
| 13:45 |
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Plastic Deformation and Crackling Noise: Learning from Dislocations about Earthquakes
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Karin Dahmen |
| 14:00 |
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Discussion |
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| 14:45 |
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Break |
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Session 2 - Stress Renewal & Earthquake Recurrence Intervals |
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Moderator: Mike Blanpied |
| 15:15 |
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The 2009 L'Aquila Sequence: A Short Overview
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Jochen Woessner |
| 15:30 |
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Reconstructing Fault Slip Using High Resolution Topography: Denali 2002 and Fort Tejon California 1857
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Ramon Arrowsmith |
| 15:45 |
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Magnitude-Frequency Distribution for the Southern San Andreas Fault Estimated from Paleoseismic Data
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Glenn Biasi |
| 16:00 |
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Uncharacteristic Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain: An Update
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Lisa Ludwig |
| 16:15 |
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Discussion |
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| 17:00 |
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Adjourn |
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| 18:00 |
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Dinner (Granhall) |
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| 19:30 |
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Session 3 - Poster Viewing (Lake Room) |
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Tuesday, April 14, 2009
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| 7:30 |
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Breakfast (Granhall) |
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Session 4 - Repeating Earthquakes (Mountain Room) |
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Moderators: Katrin Plenkers, Ramon Zuniga |
| 8:30 |
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A Recurrence of Whole Segment Events from Individual Events and Cumulated Offset Data
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Delphine Fitzenz |
| 8:45 |
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Recurrence and Interoccurence Statistics
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Don Turcotte |
| 9:00 |
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Testing the Characteristic Earthquake Hypothesis
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Morgan Page |
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| 9:15 |
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Break |
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| 9:45 |
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Small Repeating Earthquake are Time and Slip-Predictable When Magnitudes are Improved
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Justin Rubinstein |
| 10:00 |
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Quantifying the Interaction Between Small Repeating Earthquake Sequences
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Kate Chen |
| 10:15 |
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Predictability Experiments with Repeating Microearthquakes
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Jeremy Zechar |
| 10:30 |
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Discussion |
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Session 5 - Earthquake Triggering and Clustering |
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Moderators: Jiancang Zhuang, Jeanne Hardebeck |
| 11:15 |
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How Much is Recent Seismicity Affected by DCFF of a Previous Large Earthquakes?
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Ishibe Takeo |
| 11:30 |
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The Origin of the Earthquake Inter-Event Time Distribution
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Sarah Touati |
| 11:45 |
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On- and Off-Fault Aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island Subduction Earthquake Toggled by a Slow Slip Preceding the 2007 Great Outer-Rise Normal Faulting Earthquake
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Shinji Toda |
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| 12:00 |
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Lunch (Granhall) |
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| 13:30 |
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A Spatial Slip Distribution of the Several Large Earthquakes in Japan Derived from its Aftershock Activity and Rate-and-State Friction Law |
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Takaki Iwata |
| 13:45 |
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Analysis of Early Aftershocks Observed on High-Sensitivity Continuous Waveforms in Japan
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Bogdan Enescu |
| 14:00 |
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Testing the Hypothesis That All Early Aftershocks are Triggered by Dynamic Stress |
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Ross Stein |
| 14:15 |
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Response to Testing the Hypothesis That All Early Aftershocks are Triggered by Dynamic Stress |
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Jeanne Hardebeck |
| 14:30 |
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Discussion |
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| 15:15 |
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Break |
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| 15:30 |
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Session 6 - Panel Discussion - Forecasting and Prediction: Which Way to Go?
Andrew Michael, Shinji Toda, Don Turcotte, Max Wyss
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Moderator: Tom Jordan |
| 16:30 |
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Planning for StatSei 7 |
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| 17:00 |
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Adjourn |
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| 18:00 |
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Dinner (Granhall) |
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| 19:30 |
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Session 7 - Poster Viewing (Lake Room) |
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Wednesday, April 15, 2009
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| 7:30 |
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Breakfast (Granhall) |
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Session 8 - Forecasting and Hazard (Mountain Room) |
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Moderators: Alvaro Gonzalez, James Holliday |
| 8:30 |
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UCERF2 and Plans for UCERF3 by WGCEP |
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Ned Field |
| 8:45 |
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Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities Based on Long-Term Probability Models
(pdf) |
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Andrew Michael |
| 9:00 |
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New Developments in Long-Range Forecasting Using EEPAS Model |
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David Rhoades |
| 9:15 |
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Global Earthquake Forecasts |
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David Jackson |
| 9:30 |
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Space-Time ETAS Model for Wide Regional and Global Seismicity |
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Yosihiko Ogata |
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| 9:45 |
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Break |
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| 10:15 |
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Initial report on completeness magnitude for Japan: A GR-based approach to the JMA catalog data |
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Kazu Nanjo |
| 10:30 |
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Earthquake Simulators in Action (with movies - 90 MB) |
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Steve Ward |
| 10:45 |
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Oceanic Transform Fault Seismicity-Earthquakes of a Different Kind
(pdf) |
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Margaret Boettcher |
| 11:00 |
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Discussion |
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Session 9 - Predictability and Testing |
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Moderators: Kazu Nanjo, Jochen Woessner |
| 11:45 |
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Modeling of Extreme Seismic Events |
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Alik Ismail-Zadeh |
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| 12:00 |
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Lunch (Granhall) |
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| 13:30 |
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Statistical Characteristics of the Foreshocks and Aftershocks of the 2008 MW=5.0 Earthquake in West Reno, Nevada |
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John Anderson |
| 13:45 |
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Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: The Error Diagrams |
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George Molchan |
| 14:00 |
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Residual Analysis Techniques for Point Process Models for Earthquake Occurrences |
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Frederic Schoenberg |
| 14:15 |
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CSEP Earthquake Forecast Testing Center for Japan: Primary Scope and Recent Progress |
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Hiroshi Tsuruoka |
| 14:30 |
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Prediction of M5 Earthquakes in the Wenchuan Aftershock Sequence |
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Christine Smythe |
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| 14:45 |
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Break |
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| 15:15 |
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Fault-Based Search for Precursory Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) |
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Dave Bowman |
| 15:30 |
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Testing Precursory Quiesence Within CSEP |
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Max Wyss |
| 15:45 |
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Early Aftershock Statistics: New Possibilities in Earthquake Forecasting |
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Peter Shebalin |
| 16:00 |
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Discussion |
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| 16:45 |
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Closing Remarks |
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| 17:00 |
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Adjourn |
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| 18:00 |
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Dinner (Granhall) |
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| 19:30 |
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Special Lecture: Pluvial Lakes, Climate Change, Isostatic Rebound, and Active Faulting in the Northern Walker Lane: A Field Trip (Mountain Room) |
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Steve Wesnousky |
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Thursday, April 16, 2009
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| 7:00 |
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Breakfast (Granhall) |
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| 8:00 |
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Depart for field trip |
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| 18:00 |
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Arrive at Granlibakken |
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system
Southern California Earthquake Center @ 